The desecration of Hagia Sophia has been achieved. President Erdogan’s transformation of Turkey into an Islamic Republic with this symbolic act of triumphalism is complete. Now it is time for the Greek world to prepare against Turkish aggression against Cyprus and Greece.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has achieved a good deal on the diplomatic front. European countries such as France are now calling for sanctions against Turkey in response to Ankara’s drilling in Greek territorial waters. Greece has established important alliances with Israel and Egypt.
Relations with Russia are uncertain as Moscow presently is pursuing a policy of cooperation with Turkey. However, there are still tensions between Moscow and Ankara in Libya where they are supporting opposing factions. Libya has the potential to be the new Syria which nearly caused a war between Russia and Turkey.
Greece also has friendly relations with Israel and the United States. All well and good, up to a point. The schism between the Greek Churches and the Russian Church over Ukraine is still very troubling. This schism was caused in large part by American policymakers who intervened blatantly in the internal affairs of the Ecumenical Patriarchate and the Church of Greece.
The Church question aside, things are looking up for Greece as long as they are able to maintain international support at the diplomatic level. It is abundantly clear that Turkey is an international menace. While Turkey promotes conflict with Greece, Azerbaijani aggression has led to a conflict with Armenia. Azerbaijanis are a Turkish people related to the Turks and serve as Ankara’s allies.
The Azerbaijanis have recently threatened to attack a nuclear power plant in Armenia. This Turkish nation demonstrates that after a century, the Turkish world still considers genocide to be an acceptable policy. It is as if we are still living in the year 1915.
One of the few things I found annoying with the media coverage of Hagia Sophia was the deferential treatment by the media of Mustafa Kemal. Yes, Kemal introduced secularism to Turkey and he ordered Hagia Sophia to be transformed into a Museum from a Mosque but he also ordered and presided over the genocide of Armenians, Assyrians, and Greeks, and there is no question if there ever was that he fully approved of the burning of Smyrna and the massacres of the Armenians and Greeks.
Two recent books, “The Great Fire” by Lou Ureneck and “The Thirty Year Genocide” by Benny Morris and Dror Ze’evi have reminded us what a murderous and bloodthirsty figure Kemal was. In the Ureneck book, his meeting with General Noureddin Pasha (the Turkish version of Heinrich Himmler) is recalled leaving no doubt he approved of the impending slaughter at Smyrna. The Morris and Ze’evi book features page after page of horrors perpetrated by the armies of Mustafa Kemal.
If there is going to be a war between Greece and Turkey, it will be as if there was a war between Israel and a Neo-Nazi government in Germany. Erdogan’s political allies are the National Action Party, the political wing of the notorious Grey Wolves. They have criticized Erdogan in the past for not doing anything to “liberate” the Greek islands.
In the past Greek appeasement of Turkey through the surrender of an islet in the Aegean here and there was able to buy peace. Erdogan’s Turkey is not content to simply neutralize Greek territorial rights over some islets.
Ankara is looking to revive Turkish ambitions that were doused at the Conference at Lausanne. At that time, the Turks were not happy with Constantinople, Smyrna, and the other lands they conquered they desired the Aegean and Dodecanese islands (the latter were under Italian rule at the time). The demands for the islands alarmed Great Britain at the time which opposed any further territorial conquests for Turkey.
The Turks therefore are aiming for a resumption of hostilities that were ended by the signing of the Treaty of Lausanne. At the time, Turkey had a population of 13,000,000. Greece had a population of 7,000,000. Greece presently has a population of 10,000,000 and Turkey has a population of eighty two million.
If the Kurdish population were between fifteen and twenty million that would give Turkey between sixty two and sixty seven million people. Greek diplomacy has to focus one hundred percent on the defense of the Greek islands and Cyprus. Its relations with Europe, America, Russia, Israel, and the Arab world must depend on their own stances toward Turkey.
Hagia Sophia has served Greece well over the past few weeks. As disappointing as it might be to see the Great Church as a Mosque, the world has been roused in revulsion at the intolerance and fanaticism of the present Turkish government. The conversion of Hagia Sophia is the grand triumph for Erdogan’s successful revolution.
Now comes the difficult part. Greece was successful in raising international awareness to the plight of Hagia Sophia. Now Greece must bring attention to the aggressive foreign policy of the Neo-Ottomans. Greece must also prepare militarily for the defense of the Greek islands and for the oil in the Aegean that rightfully belongs to Athens and the oil near Cyprus that belongs to Nicosia.
Erdogan has ripped the mask off of Turkey. The Kemalists were able to masquerade throughout the twentieth century as a modern and democratic nation. It was a facade well hidden by western dress and other aspects of modernism.
Since 9/11, the west has been at war with jihadists. Turkey is emerging as a not only a center of jihadism, but as the center of the next Caliphate. The last Caliphate that was universally recognized by the Muslim world was located in Constantinople and was abolished by Kemal in 1924. The possibility that Erdogan may try to restore the Caliphate cannot be ruled out.
It is in the interests of America, Europe, Russia, Israel, and the Arab world to support Greece over Turkey. This is why the next round of Greek diplomacy will be more challenging than the previous round that lobbied the world to condemn the conversion of Hagia Sophia. Greece is now emerging as the front line state against a resurgent Turkey.
Its strategic position is invaluable. Among the Arabs Greece has support from Egypt which is a good start. Ties with Israel are getting better but not guaranteed. Greece will have to work hard to secure a real deal with Israel that will not be reversed at the first sign of Erdogan losing his grip on power.
Greece has a case to make in the United States. It can make an appeal to the Trump administration on the grounds that Trump enthusiastically sought to eradicate the jihadist Islamic State. On the other hand, the Trump administration has established friendly relations with the Erdogan regime. Whether this is a temporary aberration or not is hard to foresee at this time.
In the event of a Democratic victory in November, it is hard to predict how Greece and Cyprus could benefit. Democratic Presidential Candidate Joe Biden takes a pro Greek stance. But the Democrats going back to Jimmy Carter claimed to support Greece and Cyprus and went back on their pledges every time. The fact that the Democratic base is moving to the extreme left of the political spectrum indicates that there may not be much sympathy for a Christian country in a conflict with Turkey. On the other hand, even left wing radicals such as Alexandria Ocasio Cortez supported recognition of the Armenian Genocide and condemned the Trump administration’s abandonment of the Syrian Kurds (the only instances in which I can say I agreed with this woman).
The Trump administration still has promise based on its reform of traditional American foreign policy. Trump’s pro Russian sympathies and his willingness to get out of Syria and reverse the policies of the neo cons is an indication that he is willing to change foreign policy. Perhaps his administration will be the one to cut off Turkey? It is still too early to tell.
Greek relations with Russia are complicated for two reasons. Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew created a Church conflict with the Russian Orthodox Church and has successfully dragged the Church of Greece into it. Furthermore, Russian foreign policy has been centered on undermining the United States and NATO. Russia is pursuing a friendly relationship with Turkey.
Historically, Russian relations with the Ottoman Turks have been very bad. On occasion, relations would improve. It is possible that present Turkish-Russian relations are temporary. Relations between these two countries were flourishing until Turkey shot down a Russian plane over Syria. Overnight, Russian-Turkish relations nearly resulted in war.
In addition, the Russian Ambassador to Turkey was assassinated by a Turkish jihadist. Turkey and Russia were on opposite sides in Syria (the Russians prevailed with the victory of the Asaad government). They are again on opposite sides in Libya in which Turkey and Russia are supporting rival factions. The future in Russian-Turkish relations is uncertain.
Greece and Cyprus face existential threats that they have not faced in many decades. The evil nature of the Turkish government has manifested itself through the exploitation of Muslim refugees fleeing miserable conditions in the middle east. Turkey has been sending these people to Europe through the territory of Greece. For Ankara, these people are mere pawns to be used to force Greece and Europe into submission.
The United States put Greece in a difficult position through its wars in Iraq and Syria. The refugee crisis flooded the Greek islands and created a humanitarian crisis. To the credit of the Greek people, volunteers provided shelter and relief forthese refugees. But there is a limit as to how many people Greece can actually take in. The Russian intervention in Syria was beneficial to Greece as it led to the Syrian government’s survival and stabilization which stopped much or most of the refugee crisis.
In June, the Russian Ambassador to Athens expressed support for Greece’s stance on the islands and the continental shelf. Recent support for Greece by the European Union when Greece defended its border from migrants being sent over by Turkey was welcome and is hopefully a sign of further support to come.
In the past two centuries, international support for Greece has come only on a handful of occasions. First, during the period of the Greek War of Independence. Secondly, after the Italian invasion of 1940 and the subsequent Nazi invasion and occupation of Greece. Thirdly, during the Civil War and the Cold War when Greece was threatened by Communism.
But there is yet another brief era of western support for Greece that was less successful yet much more significant for today’s realities than the aforementioned examples. That is the brief window of opportunity for Greece that occurred between 1917 and 1920. During the height of the era of the great visionary Eleutherios Venizelos, Greece received western support for her ambitions to liberate the Greek populations of Asia Minor.
That support disintegrated in 1920 with the downfall of Venizelos and the return of the pro German King. The subsequent arming of Mustafa Kemal’s Turkish forces and the betrayal of Greece by Italy, France, and Great Britain is a factor that Greece will also have to weigh in its diplomatic efforts today against Turkey.
Greek ambitions today are less ambitious than they were one century ago. Today, they are defensive but the ultimate aim should be the cutting off of Turkey by most of the world, especially the United States, Europe, Russia, Israel, and as much of the Arab world as possible. The Mitsotakis family had ties to the great Venizelos.
Kyriakos Mistotakis seems to be off to a very good start. His reign is very promising. Greece faces great dangers and risks, but also great possibilities.
