It appears that Turkish influence is growing in Central Asia and Russian influence is lessening. This is problematic as is the remarkable lack of support by the Russians for the Armenians during last year’s war with Azerbaijan. The Russians have been giving Turkey a free hand against Armenia.
It is hard to see what the Russians have to gain from this. Turkey is the promotor of jihadism. Ankara is gradually replacing Islamic State as the center of the new Caliphate. The Russians fought to destroy jihadism in Syria but are now tolerating a new from of jihadism being promoted by Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The Russians are not the only ones that deserve criticism here. The United States has not exactly done anything to counter Turkey and Azerbaijan. True, the Biden White House recognized the Armenian Genocide but in the aftermath lifted an embargo that had been imposed on Azerbaijan in the early 1990’s. Appeasement of Turkey remains in effect in Washington.
The problem that Greece, Armenia, and Cyprus face is the fact that Turkey’s geostrategic position continues to enthrall both Washington and Moscow. Turkey has benefitted from its borders going back to the Ottoman Empire. Under the Erdogan regime, both Moscow and Washington have been humiliated and slapped around.
The Turks ordered the downing of a Russian plane over Syria in 2015. They supported the enemies of the government in Damascus (Russia’s ally) during the Syrian war. They supported Islamic State which should have enraged both Washington and Moscow. Turkey continues to humiliate both Washington and Moscow both of whom seek the influence of Erdogan.
Turkish influence continues to grow over the Turkish speaking Republics of Central Asia (see the links above) and over the Muslim world, although there are countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates who are resisting Turkey’s expanding influence. Washington and Moscow will come to regret that they both had opportunities to crush and curtail the influence of Erdogan’s Turkey but refused to do so for their own self serving and short term interests.
Greeks also seem to misunderstand the American foreign policy establishment’s commitment to Turkey. American-Turkish ties have been badly strained during the Erdogan era, but American officials have not figured out how to conduct policies in Central Asia and the Middle East without Turkey. Some Greek Americans are under the impression that the Democratic Party will be anti Turkish. Such a belief is based in the realm of fantasy because domestic American politics cannot penetrate the long and committed American policies that have been built up for at least a century based on Turkish support.
On the positive side, American-Turkish relations have deteriorated but that is because of the rise of radical Islam in Turkey and because of Erdogan’s arrogance and megalomania, not because either political party in America has become pro Greek. It appears that the new cold war between Washington and Moscow has benefitted Turkey. The Erdogan government has been very effective in playing the Americans and the Russians off one another.
The reality is that the world is a vicious place dominated by the powerful. Turkey retains a great deal of power and influence. For a brief time as the Cold War was coming to an end, there were signs that America’s use for Turkey was coming to an end. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait however led the US to depend on Turkey for use of the military base at Incerlik.
The Greeks and the Armenians still have strong cases to make but need to work hard in both Washington and Moscow. The Ukrainian Church crisis has complicated Greek relations with both Washington and Moscow. Greece needs for that issue to be resolved even if it means disavowing Patriarch Bartholomew. Greece and Cyprus have other pressing concerns beyond Patriarch Bartholomew’s claims of power over the Orthodox Church.
The Church issue is relevant here because it exposes America as a semi colonial power maintaining an unhealthy influence in Greece. The Church issue is also turning Greeks against Russians. The Church issue must end and then Athens can engage both Washington and Moscow.
There are reasons for optimism. Erdogan has demonstrated a pattern of irrational thought. In 2011, he nearly started a war with Israel after supporting the flotilla attack on the Israelis. In 2015, he shot down the Russian plane, and during the war in Syria invaded the Kurdish region which was then occupied by American forces.
At some point, one has to believe that someone will finally stand up to Turkish bullying and aggression. Turkish influence is on the rise and needs to be countered. The abandonment of the Syrian Kurds by even the Trump administration and the abandonment of Armenia by Russia are truly disappointing.
However, the signs of tension between Turkey and both Washington and Moscow do exist. The challenge for the Greeks is to engage both of them, to remain friendly with both, and to work to convince both of them of the Turkish threat.
6 replies on “The Rising Turkish Threat”
US policy is hamstrung in the near east. We’re opposed to the Russians, but appear to recognize (finally) the dangers of Turkic military power. Turkey was booted out of the F-35 development and US refused to sell those aircraft to Turkey-ostensibly because the Turks procured (with prior consultation with NATO) Russian S400 AA missiles. But that was more an excuse than the primary reason. Turkey has been constructing an Light Aircraft Carrier-the Anadolu-and planned to deploy F-35 fighters on it, giving them offensive naval capability beyond their needs. Combined with Erdogan’s reckless rhetoric and unilateral actions, Washington wisely terminated the sale. Turkey now has an aircraft carrier in construction without any aircraft to deploy on it-and they’re scrambling to find alternative uses for the ship to save face. As long as Erdogan is leader of Turkey the US will be unable to find reapproachment with that nation-he’s too extreme and corrupt. And since the Dems in particular have created a boogeyman out of Putin the USA can not make inroads there. I see a fractured US near east policy for some time to come, but it’s of our own making. The loss by Netanyahu in Israel is another factor which must be thrown into the mix, we don’t know how that will affect the balance of power in the region. The new Administration has been very critical of Turkey and Erdogan in the past and INSISTED that Israel recognize the Armenian and Pontian Genocides. I see little benefit to Turkey by the government change in Israel, it will be neutral or even more challenging to them.
Do you have any info that the Biden administration insisted that Israel recognize the Greek and Armenian genocide? Israel has been supporting Azerbaijan and supplied them with military hardware during the war with Armenia last year. American and Israel turning against Turkey is not yet a reality. While it is a good thing that the US
is taking measures against Turkey on certain issues, it remains problematic that they are not taking measures specifically in support of Greece and Cyprus. Russia is also beginning to worry me considering that Moscow let Azerbaijan defeat Armenia last year.
I have no information to the effect that America encouraged Israel to recognize the Pontian and Armenian genocides. I do know that the new Israel PM Naftali Bennett has publicly called for Israeli recognition of the Armenian Genocide. Whether he will continue to push that as the new PM remains to be seen, but at best the Israeli/Turkey relationship continues along it’s broken path or deteriorates further. I offer this article as support for the above comments: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/bennett-lashes-erdogan-urges-israel-recognize-armenian-genocide/
One other clarification: Russia did not let Azerbaijan defeat Armenia, Azerbaijan was fighting Armenian elements in Nagorny-Karabakh, not with the nation of Armenia. Russia is in a difficult position, they don’t want the region to turn into another Chechnya-which cost them a great deal in money and lives. On the other hand, they managed to keep Turkish forces out of the peacekeeping role-no small feat. US policy in the region is schizophrenic-being opposed to all things Russian and not favoring Turkish expansion and aggression. Our weakness on Russia is largely our own making.
The Russians have made serious mistakes in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia went to war in Syria to stop jihadism. Turkey is sponsoring Syrian jihadists (which the Russians worked to defeat) in Nagorno Karabakh to fight the Armenians. The Russians need to see Turkey as a jihadist threat like ISIS. Pro Russian as I am I am disappointed by their refusal to act against Azerbaijan. It should be emphasized that the Turks are scared of the Russians. If the Russians had warned off Azerbaijan, Turkey would have backed off and would their ally in Baku.
This is a good sign, but Israel has been helping Azerbaijan against Armenia by arming Kabul and expressing support for Azerbaijan Israel must cut off Turkey and Azerbaijan.