The NATO alliance is now seeking to “mediate” the crisis caused by Turkish aggression against Greece in the Mediterranean sea. Athens should look upon NATO plans with great skepticism and suspicion. In contrast to the European Union, and in contrast to the support for Greece from individual countries such as France and Italy, NATO has expressed no hitherto support for Greece.
The Mitsotakis government has handled this crisis well. After Turkey signed an agreement with Libya in effect partitioning the Mediterranean between them, Athens signed the EEZ agreement with Egypt. In addition to France and Italy, it appears the United Arab Emirates and even Saudi Arabia are adopting stances favorable to the Greek position.
Athens knows full well that the Erdogan government has put forward a claim on the Greek islands and has openly demanded a revision of the Treaty of Lausanne. Turkish claims to the continental shelf located under these islands and drilling for oil near them is an act of blatant aggression. NATO’s refusal to intervene until now is proof that NATO cannot be trusted.
It should not be forgotten that on January 31, 1996 Turkey claimed the Greek islet of Imia. Through the mediation of Undersecretary of State Richard Holbrooke the Greek flag was removed from the islet although the Treaty of Paris of 1947 clearly showed that Imia belonged to Greece. A New York Times editorial last weekend lamented the failure of the United States to “resolve” the present “crisis” in accordance with past “mediation” efforts such as that of January 31, 1996.
Athens would be making a great mistake if it agreed to anything that would concede to Turkey any of its rights. In all likelihood, the General Secretary of NATO will probably attempt to impose on Greece another “Imia” type solution. Greece should be ready for this and should reject any agreement that would compromise Greece’s rights.
The German newspaper, “Die Welt” reported that Turkish President Erdogan ordered the military to either sink a Greek ship or to shoot down a Greek helicopter without causing the loss of life! The Turkish Generals reportedly refused to follow the President’s orders. If this happens to be true it indicates that many in Turkey are skeptical of the Erdogan governments pro war policies and that divisions may exist in the formulation of policy.
Unlike in the past when Turkish aggression was manifest against Greece, Turkey has many more problems to cope with. In the past, Turkey’s problems were limited to the Kurdish question. Today, Turkey has many more problems that have to with the Kurds of Syria as well as their own Kurds. In addition, they have tensions with Syria as a result of the victory of the Syrian government in that countries civil war.
Turkey’s allies in the effort to overthrow the Asaad regime included Saudi Arabia. Now it appears that tensions exist between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Turkey’s effort to emerge as the leader of the Sunni Muslim world has failed spectacularly.
The Greek City Times has reported that Russia has protested Greek media coverage asserting that Moscow supports Turkey in the present crisis, an accusation Moscow rejects. While the Russian ties with Turkey at this point should be of serious concern, it is a dangerous mistake for Greece to join the western demonization of Russia. It should be remembered that alliances throughout the crisis in Syria and the Middle East have shifted.
The Turkish government ordered the downing of a Russian plane in 2015 which nearly provoked a war with Russia and Turkey. Greeks need to remember that Athens rejected overtures from the Russians during this time and obeyed the dictates of the west. A Greek alliance with America and Europe against Turkey is welcome, Athens has to be careful to avoid participating in any actions against Russia and Iran which American officials seem to be attempting to drag Greece into.
American Ambassador to Greece Geoffrey Pyatt has praised Greece for keeping Russian influence out. The Greeks need to be concerned only about the Russian support for Turkey, and not the non existent efforts of Russian to establish influence in Greece. It should be remembered that Patriarch Bartholomew with the full backing of Washington along with some compromised Bishops from the Church of Greece have supported the persecution of Moscow’s Orthodox Church in Ukraine at the request of the State Department.
In 2021, Greece will commemorate two anniversaries. Greeks will celebrate the two hundredth anniversary of the Greek War of Independence. Less likely to be highlighted next August will be the nine hundred and fifty year anniversary of the Battle of Manzikert where the Seljuk Turks defeated the Byzantine armies and seized a huge portion of Anatolia. The Greek world has been at the mercy of the Turk ever since.
Greek national ambitions should be aimed at eradicating the Turkish threat. The Mitsotakis government has presently put Turkey at the forefront of its foreign policy. For this, the Prime Minister and his foreign policy and defense advisors deserve praise. It has been decades since Greece had a government that was based on Greek nationalism rather than the internationalist agenda that was at the forefront of the agenda of the leftist Socialist Party.
Greece’s foreign policy must remained focused on Turkey. Its foreign relations with America, Europe, Russia, Israel, and the Arab world should depend on the status of their relationship with Turkey. Greece should strengthen its ties with those countries that are hostile to Turkey. Considering Russia’s ties with Turkey, it is reasonable for Athens to cool its relationship with Moscow.
But that relationship should be cooled on the basis only of Russian support for Turkey, and not because America and Europe do not like Russia. Greece needs to be careful and to select its fights very carefully and selectively. It should commit itself only to an alliance that is anti Turkish.
It is entirely possible that the Turkish government could succeed in following the example of the Young Turks during the First World War and succeed in alienating both the West and Russia. This would be the ideal. Turkey today is evolving into a Jihadist state that threatens everybody.
Before the Greek media joins in the demonization of Russia it should take into consideration the downing of the Russian plane in 2015, and the assassination of the Russian Ambassador by a Turkish Jihadist. In the past decade, Erdogan’s Turkey has nearly started a war with Israel (the flotilla incident), Russia, and the United States (in Syria). While it is disappointing that none of these three countries maintained a principled stance against Turkish aggression, precedents have been set for a future Turkish provocation against one or all of the above.
The present Turkish President has demonstrated an inability to engage rationally with other countries. Sooner or later, he is going to provoke a conflict with one of the above governments that will lead to serious repercussions for Ankara. In the meantime, Greece should maintain its principled policies and reject any attempt by NATO to force Athens to surrender its rights.
The Erdogan leadership survived coup attempts in 2004 and 2016. In all likelihood it can only be removed by power from without. As unlikely as it seems now, should Ankara continue to provoke and to meddle, the prospect of a foreign intervention in Turkey cannot be ruled out over the long term.
